TY  - JOUR
AU  - Jones,Benjamin F.
AU  - Olken,Benjamin A.
TI  - The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 11528
PY  - 2005
Y2  - August 2005
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w11528
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w11528.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Benjamin Jones
Northwestern University
Kellogg School of Management
Department of Management and Strategy
2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL  60208
Tel: 847/491-3177
Fax: 847/467-1777
E-Mail: bjones@kellogg.northwestern.edu

Benjamin A. Olken
Department of Economics
MIT
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA  02142-1347
Tel: 617/588-1437
Fax: 617/868-2742
E-Mail: bolken@mit.edu
M2  - featured in NBER digest on 2005-08-01
AB  - This paper investigates the remarkable extremes of growth experiences within countries and examines the changes that occur when growth starts and stops. We find three main results. First, all but the very richest countries experience both growth miracles and failures over substantial periods. Second, growth accounting reveals that physical capital accumulation plays a negligible role in growth take-offs and a larger but still modest role in growth collapses. The implied role of productivity in these shifts is also directly reflected in employment reallocations and changes in trade. Third, growth accelerations and collapses are asymmetric phenomena. Collapses typically feature reduced manufacturing and investment amidst increasing price instability, whereas growth takeoffs are primarily associated with large and steady expansions in international trade. This asymmetry suggests that the roads into and out of rapid growth expansions may not be the same. The results stand in contrast to much growth theory and conventional wisdom: despite much talk of poverty traps, even very poor countries regularly grow rapidly, and the role of aggregate investment in growth accelerations is negligible.
ER  -