TY  - JOUR
AU  - Persson,Torsten
AU  - Tabellini,Guido
TI  - The Growth Effect of Democracy: Is It Heterogenous and How Can It Be Estimated?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 13150
PY  - 2007
Y2  - June 2007
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13150
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w13150.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Torsten Persson
Director
Institute for International Economic Studies
Stockholm University
S-106 91 Stockholm
SWEDEN
Tel: 46-8-163066
Fax: + 46-8-6747801
E-Mail: Torsten.Persson@iies.su.se

Guido Tabellini
IGIER - Universita Bocconi
Via Salasco 5
20136 Milano
ITALY
Tel: 39 2 583 6 3305; fax 3302
E-Mail: guido.tabellini@unibocconi.it
AB  - We estimate the effect of political regime transitions on growth with semi-parametric methods, combining difference in differences with matching, that have not been used in macroeconomic settings. Our semi-parametric estimates suggest that previous parametric estimates may have seriously underestimated the growth effects of democracy. In particular, we find an average negative effect on growth of leaving democracy on the order of  -2 percentage points implying effects on income per capita as large as 45 percent over the 1960-2000 panel. Heterogenous characteristics of reforming and non-reforming countries appear to play an important role in driving these results.
ER  -