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Robert W. Dimand, Barbara J. Spencer
NBER Working Paper No. 13950
Issued in April 2008
NBER Program(s): EFG
---- Abstract -----
Trevor Swan independently developed the neoclassical growth model, publishing Swan (1956) ten months later than Solow (1956), but analyzing technical progress before Solow (1957). These independent contributions are sometimes recognized by reference to the "Solow-Swan growth model", but more commonly reference is made only to the "Solow growth model". This paper examines the history of Swan's development of the growth model, the similarities and differences between the approaches of Swan and Solow and the reasons why Swan's contribution has been overshadowed. We draw on unpublished work to show that in 1950, Swan had set out a number of the basic ideas of his growth model in a verbal format. In 1956, Swan published only a simplified version of his model based on a Cobb-Douglas production function. Swan's original and more general model (circulated in July 1956), was published only posthumously in 2002. This reluctance to publish was consistent with his perhaps counterproductive modesty and perfectionism. His well known paper, "Longer run problems of the Balance of Payments" was circulated in 1955, eight years before publication in 1963. His pioneering work in 1945, developing the first macroeconomic model of the Australian economy, was published posthumously in 1989.
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