TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stock,James H.
AU  - Watson,Mark W.
TI  - Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 6528
PY  - 1998
Y2  - April 1998
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6528
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w6528.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
James H. Stock
Department of Economics
Harvard University
Littauer Center M27
Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: 617/496-0502
Fax: 617/495-7730
E-Mail: James_Stock@harvard.edu

Mark W. Watson
Department of Economics
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ 08544-1013
Tel: 609/258-4811
Fax: 609/258-5533
E-Mail: mwatson@princeton.edu
AB  - This paper examines the empirical relationship in the postwar United States between the aggregate business cycle and various aspects of the macroeconomy, such as production, interest rates, prices, productivity, sectoral employment, investment, income, and consumption.  This is done by examining the strength of the relationship between the aggregate cycle and the cyclical components of individual time series, whether individual series lead or lag the cycle, and whether individual series are useful in predicting aggregate fluctuations.  The paper also reviews some additional empirical regularities in the U.S. economy, including the Phillips curve and some long-run relationships, in particular long-run money demand, long-run properties of interest rates and the yield curve, and the long-run properties of the shares in output of consumption, investment and government spending.
ER  -