Andrey Simonov

Columbia Business School
90 Morningside Dr Apt 6C
New York, NY 10027

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Institutional Affiliation: Columbia Business School

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2020The Persuasive Effect of Fox News: Non-Compliance with Social Distancing During the Covid-19 Pandemic
with Szymon K. Sacher, Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, Shirsho Biswas: w27237
We test for and measure the effects of cable news in the US on regional differences in compliance with recommendations by health experts to practice social distancing during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a quasi-experimental design to estimate the causal effect of Fox News viewership on stay-at-home behavior by using only the incremental local viewership due to the quasi-random assignment of channel positions in a local cable line-up. We find that a 10% increase in Fox News cable viewership (approximately 0:13 higher viewer rating points) leads to a 1.3 percentage point reduction in the propensity to stay at home. We find a persuasion rate of Fox News on non-compliance with stay-at-home behavior during the crisis of about 5:7% - 28:4% across our various social distancin...
September 2019State-Dependent Demand Estimation with Initial Conditions Correction
with Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, Günter J. Hitsch, Peter E. Rossi: w26217
We analyze the initial conditions bias in the estimation of brand choice models with structural state dependence. Using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations and empirical case studies of shopping panels, we show that popular, simple solutions that mis-specify the initial conditions are likely to lead to bias even in relatively long panel datasets. The magnitude of the bias in the state dependence parameter can be as large as a factor of 2 to 2.5. We propose a solution to the initial conditions problem that samples the initial states as auxiliary variables in an MCMC procedure. The approach assumes that the joint distribution of prices and consumer choices, and hence the distribution of initial states, is in equilibrium. This assumption is plausible for the mature consumer packaged good...

Published: Andrey Simonov & Jean-Pierre Dubé & Günter Hitsch & Peter Rossi, 2020. "State-Dependent Demand Estimation with Initial Conditions Correction," Journal of Marketing Research, vol 57(5), pages 789-809.

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