NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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NBER Papers on International Finance and Macroeconomics Program

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2020
w26773 Todd M. Hazelkorn
Tobias J. Moskowitz
Kaushik Vasudevan

Beyond Basis Basics: Leverage Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price
w26760 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?
w26731 Richard Baldwin
Rikard Forslid

Globotics and Development: When Manufacturing is Jobless and Services are Tradable
w26714 Murillo Campello
Gustavo S. Cortes
Fabricio d'Almeida
Gaurav Kankanhalli

Global Effects of the Brexit Referendum: Evidence from US Corporations
w26706 Takatoshi Ito
Kenta Yamada
Misako Takayasu
Hideki Takayasu

Execution Risk and Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets
w26701 Marco Cipriani
Ana Fostel
Daniel Houser

Leverage and Asset Prices: An Experiment.
w26671 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)
w26667 Harold L. Cole
Dirk Krueger
George J. Mailath
Yena Park

Coalition-Proof Risk Sharing Under Frictions
w26666 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
w26646 Diego Aparicio
Roberto Rigobon

Quantum Prices
w26644 Takatoshi Ito
Tomoyoshi Yabu

Japanese Foreign Exchange Interventions, 1971-2018: Estimating a Reaction Function Using the Best Proxy
w26613 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Deterministic Debt Cycles in Open Economies with Flow Collateral Constraints
w26611 Kyle Handley
Fariha Kamal
Ryan Monarch

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism
w26609 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty
2019
w26583 Zhengyang Jiang
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Mindy Z. Xiaolan

The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle
w26580 Patrick J. Kehoe
Pierlauro Lopez
Virgiliu Midrigan
Elena Pastorino

Asset Prices and Unemployment Fluctuations
w26575 Zhe Geng
Jun Pan

Price Discovery and Market Segmentation in China's Credit Market
w26570 Samara Gunter
Daniel Riera-Crichton
Carlos Vegh
Guillermo Vuletin

Non-Linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output: The Role of the Initial Level of Taxation
w26560 Josh Davis
Cristian Fuenzalida
Alan M. Taylor

The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r*
w26558 Alessandro Rebucci
Chang Ma

Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature
w26545 Hui Tong
Shang-Jin Wei

Endogenous Corporate Leverage Response to a Safer Macro Environment: The Case of Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation
w26538 Lu Zhang
Q-factors and Investment CAPM
w26520 Hui Chen
Zhuo Chen
Zhiguo He
Jinyu Liu
Rengming Xie

Pledgeability and Asset Prices: Evidence from the Chinese Corporate Bond Markets
w26499 Ying Xu
Jennifer Corbett

Using Network Method to Measure Financial Interconnection
w26496 Kristin Forbes
Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad?
w26478 Alejandro Izquierdo
Ruy E. Lama
Juan Pablo Medina
Jorge P. Puig
Daniel Riera-Crichton
Carlos A. Vegh
Guillermo Vuletin

Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Investigation
w26473 Gino Gancia
Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto
Jaume Ventura

A Theory of Economic Unions
w26469 Marco Cipriani
Ana Fostel
Daniel Houser

Endogenous Leverage and Default in the Laboratory
w26464 Yang You
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Redeemable Platform Currencies
w26451 Alessandro Dovis
Rishabh Kirpalani

Rules without Commitment: Reputation and Incentives
w26447 Bilge Erten
Anton Korinek
José Antonio Ocampo

Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence
w26446 Kenichi Ueda
Somnath Sharma

Listing Advantages Around the World
w26435 Josh Davis
Alan M. Taylor

The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns
w26426 Oliver de Groot
Ceyhun Bora Durdu
Enrique G. Mendoza

Approximately Right?: Global v. Local Methods for Open-Economy Models with Incomplete Markets
w26402 Sergio de Ferra
Kurt Mitman
Federica Romei

Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks
w26397 Gianluca Benigno
Huigang Chen
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci
Eric R. Young

Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability
w26396 Alberto Cavallo
Gita Gopinath
Brent Neiman
Jenny Tang

Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
w26372 Hang Bai
Erica X.N. Li
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Does Costly Reversibility Matter for U.S. Public Firms?
w26365 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Macroeconomic Frameworks
w26361 Joshua Aizenman
Macroeconomics Challenges and Resilience of Emerging Market Economies
w26359 Marek Kapička
Finn Kydland
Carlos Zarazaga

Exploring The Role of Limited Commitment Constraints in Argentina's "Missing Capital"
w26347 Laura Alfaro
Fabio Kanczuk

Undisclosed Debt Sustainability
w26342 Michael D. Bordo
Pierre Siklos

The Transformation and Performance of Emerging Market Economies Across the Great Divide of the Global Financial Crisis
w26333 Sebastian Edwards
On Latin American Populism, And Its Echoes Around the World
w26314 Michael B. Devereux
Wei Dong
Ben Tomlin

Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products
w26311 Isha Agarwal
Grace Weishi Gu
Eswar S. Prasad

China's Impact on Global Financial Markets
w26310 Enrique G. Mendoza
Sergio Villalvazo

FiPIt: A Simple, Fast Global Method for Solving Models with Two Endogenous States & Occasionally Binding Constraints
w26307 Javier Bianchi
Pablo Ottonello
Ignacio Presno

Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk
w26299 Riccardo Colacito
Steven J. Riddiough
Lucio Sarno

Business Cycles and Currency Returns
w26297 Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers
w26277 Guillermo A. Calvo
Liquidity Deflation and Liquidity Trap under Flexible Prices: Some Microfoundations and Implications
w26266 Paul Bergin
Ling Feng
Ching-Yi Lin

Trade and Firm Financing
w26262 Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Riders on the Storm
w26259 Philippe Bacchetta
Eric van Wincoop

Puzzling Exchange Rate Dynamics and Delayed Portfolio Adjustment
w26246 François Fontaine
Julien Martin
Isabelle Mejean

Price Discrimination within and across EMU Markets: Evidence from French Exporters
w26236 Fernando Arce
Julien Bengui
Javier Bianchi

A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation
w26229 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Ricardo Reis

A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis
w26226 Menzie D. Chinn
Hiro Ito

A Requiem for "Blame It on Beijing": Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses
w26218 Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Scarlet Chen
Paul Mizen
Pawel Smietanka
Gregory Thwaites

The Impact of Brexit on UK Firms
w26214 Pierpaolo Benigno
Linda M. Schilling
Harald Uhlig

Cryptocurrencies, Currency Competition, and the Impossible Trinity
w26213 Dani Rodrik
Putting Global Governance in its Place
w26212 George A. Alessandria
Horag Choi

Entry, Trade, and Exporting over the Cycle
w26201 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka
Alexander Horst Schwemmer

Welfare State vs. Market Forces in a Globalization Era
w26199 José Andrée Camarena
Luciana Galeano
Luis Morano
Jorge Puig
Daniel Riera-Crichton
Carlos Vegh
Lucila Venturi
Guillermo Vuletin

Fooled by the Cycle: Permanent versus Cyclical Improvements in Social Indicators
w26198 Łukasz Rachel
Lawrence H. Summers

On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World
w26188 Yan Bai
Keyu Jin
Dan Lu

Misallocation Under Trade Liberalization
w26184 John D. Burger
Francis E. Warnock
Veronica Cacdac Warnock

The Natural Level of Capital Flows
w26166 Cécile Bastidon
Michael Bordo
Antoine Parent
Marc Weidenmier

Towards an Unstable Hook: The Evolution of Stock Market Integration Since 1913
w26141 Jaume Ventura
Sharing a Government
w26129 Eugenio M. Cerutti
Maurice Obstfeld
Haonan Zhou

Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants
w26121 Dong Cheng
Mario J. Crucini
Hyunseung Oh
Hakan Yilmazkuday

Early 20th Century American Exceptionalism: Production, Trade and Diffusion of the Automobile
w26108 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Networks, Barriers, and Trade
w26106 Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Maarten van Rooij

How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
w26085 Sebastian Edwards
Change of Monetary Regime, Contracts, and Prices: Lessons from the Great Depression, 1932-1935
w26076 Cristina Arellano
Xavier Mateos-Planas
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

Partial Default
w26071 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations
w26050 Sebastian Horn
Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

China's Overseas Lending
w26049 Jonas Heipertz
Amine Ouazad
Romain Rancière

The Transmission of Shocks in Endogenous Financial Networks: A Structural Approach
w26046 Andrew Lilley
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Exchange Rate Reconnect
w26039 Maurice Obstfeld
Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy
w26032 David W. Berger
Luigi Bocola
Alessandro Dovis

Imperfect Risk-Sharing and the Business Cycle
w26031 Ricardo J. Caballero
Gunes Kamber

On the Global Impact of Risk-off Shocks and Policy-put Frameworks
w26026 Joseba Martinez
Thomas Philippon
Markus Sihvonen

Does a Currency Union Need a Capital Market Union? Risk Sharing via Banks and Markets
w26012 Simon Gilchrist
Vivian Yue
Egon Zakrajšek

US Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets
w26009 Wenxin Du
Benjamin M. Hébert
Amy Wang Huber

Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?
w25996 Rashad Ahmed
Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak

Inflation and Exchange Rate Targeting Challenges Under Fiscal Dominance
w25979 Charles W. Calomiris
Mauricio Larrain
Sergio L. Schmukler
Tomas Williams

Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses
w25978 Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

International Comovement in the Global Production Network
w25965 George A. Alessandria
Shafaat Y. Khan
Armen Khederlarian

Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China's Pre-WTO Accession
w25934 Joshua Aizenman
Yin-Wong Cheung
Xingwang Qian

The Currency Composition of International Reserves, Demand for International Reserves, and Global Safe Assets
w25909 Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak

Hoarding for Stormy Days - Test of International Reserves Providing Financial Buffer Services
w25900 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Loukas Karabarbounis
Rohan Kekre

The Macroeconomics of the Greek Depression
w25890 Graciela L. Kaminsky
Boom-Bust Capital Flow Cycles
w25877 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Dirk Niepelt

On the Equivalence of Private and Public Money
w25868 Alonso de Gortari
Disentangling Global Value Chains
w25839 Chong-En Bai
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Michael Song

Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics
w25824 Christoph E. Boehm
Aaron Flaaen
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Multinationals, Offshoring and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing
w25816 Assaf Razin
The Struggle Towards Macroeconomic Stability: Analytical Essay
w25808 Saki Bigio
Galo Nuño
Juan Passadore

A Framework for Debt-Maturity Management
w25804 Stefania Garetto
Lindsay Oldenski
Natalia Ramondo

Multinational Expansion in Time and Space
w25793 Matthias Schlegl
Christoph Trebesch
Mark L.J. Wright

The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt
w25790 Felipe Benguria
Alan M. Taylor

After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade
w25782 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Hélène Rey
Maxime Sauzet

The International Monetary and Financial System
w25775 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Simon C. Rother
Isabel Schnabel

Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk
w25772 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka

Welfare State, Inequality, and Globalization: Role of International-capital-flow Direction
w25767 Aaron B. Flaaen
Ali Hortaçsu
Felix Tintelnot

The Production Relocation and Price Effects of U.S. Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines
w25765 Paul R. Bergin
Giancarlo Corsetti

Beyond Competitive Devaluations: The Monetary Dimensions of Comparative Advantage
w25754 Wei Chen
Xilu Chen
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Song

A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts
w25744 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios
w25741 Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
Ahmed Rahman
Alan M. Taylor

Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence
w25721 J. Scott Davis
Giorgio Valente
Eric van Wincoop

Global Capital Flows Cycle: Impact on Gross and Net Flows
w25714 Charles W. Calomiris
Harry Mamaysky

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes
w25710 J. Scott Davis
Michael B. Devereux

Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy
w25685 Adrien Auclert
Will S. Dobbie
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession
w25662 Eduardo Dávila
Cecilia Parlatore

Trading Costs and Informational Efficiency
w25653 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Total Risk Premium Puzzle
w25646 Katherine Eriksson
Katheryn Russ
Jay C. Shambaugh
Minfei Xu

Trade Shocks and the Shifting Landscape of U.S. Manufacturing
w25613 Katheryn N. Russ
Deborah L. Swenson

Trade Diversion and Trade Deficits: The Case of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement
w25612 Tito Boeri
Andrea Ichino
Enrico Moretti
Johanna Posch

Wage Equalization and Regional Misallocation: Evidence from Italian and German Provinces
w25606 Isaac Baley
Laura Veldkamp
Michael E. Waugh

Might Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade?
w25583 Ana Fostel
John Geanakoplos
Gregory Phelan

Global Collateral and Capital Flows
w25563 George A. Alessandria
Horag Choi

The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate: The J Curve and Trade Costs?
w25549 Marlene Amstad
Zhiguo He

Chinese Bond Market and Interbank Market
w25543 Josefin Meyer
Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo
w25523 Timothy J. Kehoe
Carlos Gustavo Machicado
José Peres-Cajías

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Bolivia, 1960-2017
w25517 Stéphane Auray
Michael B. Devereux
Aurélien Eyquem

Endogenous Trade Protection and Exchange Rate Adjustment
w25494 Barry Eichengreen
Asmaa El-Ganainy
Rui Esteves
Kris James Mitchener

Public Debt Through the Ages
w25469 Emmanuel Farhi
Matteo Maggiori

China vs. U.S.: IMS Meets IPS
w25459 Laura Alfaro
Gonzalo Asis
Anusha Chari
Ugo Panizza

Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets
w25447 Jonathan I. Dingel
Kyle C. Meng
Solomon M. Hsiang

Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate
w25426 Barry Eichengreen
From Commodity to Fiat and Now to Crypto: What Does History Tell Us?
w25421 Joao Ayres
Marcio Garcia
Diogo A. Guillén
Patrick J. Kehoe

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016

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