Alexandre Ziegler

Department of Banking and Finance
University of Zurich
Plattenstrasse 14
CH-8032 Zurich

Institutional Affiliation: University of Zurich

NBER Working Papers and Publications

July 2020The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Which Firms Won? Which Lost?
with Alexander F. Wagner, Richard J. Zeckhauser: w27470
The Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) slashed corporations’ median effective tax rates from 31.7% to 20.8%. Nevertheless, 15% of firms experienced an increase. One fifth of firms recorded nonrecurring tax costs or benefits exceeding 3% of total assets. Proxies that existing studies employ to assess the TCJA’s impacts account for just half of actual impacts. Stock prices impounded those proxies during the legislative process. Total impacts were impounded the following year, once firms published their financials. These results indicate that investors find it hard to predict even large and immediate changes to company cash flows due to unfamiliar events.
November 2018Investor Rewards to Climate Responsibility: Evidence from the 2016 Climate Policy Shock
with Stefano Ramelli, Alexander F. Wagner, Richard J. Zeckhauser: w25310
Donald Trump's election and his nomination of Scott Pruitt, a climate skeptic, to lead the Environmental Protection Agency drastically downshifted expectations on US climate-change policy. We study firms' stock-price reactions and institutional investors' portfolio adjustments after these events. As expected, carbon-intensive firms benefited. Should not companies with responsible strategies on climate change have lost value, since they were paying for actions that were now less urgent? In fact, investors actually rewarded such firms. The premium the firms received resulted, at least in part, from the move into climate-responsible stocks by long-horizon investors presumably expecting a post-Trump rebound to green policy.
February 2017Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade
with Alexander Wagner, Richard J. Zeckhauser: w23152
The election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th President of the United States of America on 11/8/2016 came as a surprise. Markets responded swiftly and decisively. This note investigates both the initial stock market reaction to the election, and the longer-term reaction through the end of 2016. We find that the individual stock price reactions to the election – that is, the market’s vote – reflect investor expectations on economic growth, taxes, and trade policy. Heavy industry and banking were relative winners, whereas healthcare, medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and apparel were among the relative losers. High-beta stocks and companies with a hitherto high tax burden benefited from the election. Although internationally-oriented companies may profit under some plans of the new...

Published: Alexander F. Wagner & Richard J. Zeckhauser & Alexandre Ziegler, 2018. "Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade," Journal of Financial Economics, .

June 2003The Dominance of Retail Stores
with Edward P. Lazear: w9795
Most items are sold to consumers by retail stores. Stores have two features that distinguish them from auctions. First, the price is posted and a consumer who values the good at more than the posted price is sold the good. Second, the sale takes place as soon as the consumer decides to buy. In contrast, auctions have prices that are determined ex post and the potential consumer must wait until the auction is held to buy the good. Consequently, auctions result in false trading', where buyers sometimes pass up other valuable opportunities while waiting for the auction to occur or instead make undesired duplicate purchases. Retail stores dominate auctions when the good is perishable and/or becomes obsolete quickly, when the market is thin, and when close substitutes for the good are plentifu...
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