NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Andrew Lilley

Harvard Business School
Baker Library 420K
Soldiers Field Road
Boston, MA 02163

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Harvard University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

July 2019Exchange Rate Reconnect
with Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman, Jesse Schreger: w26046
It is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly co-move with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature on “exchange rate disconnect.” We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not co-move with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample explanatory power for currencies since then. Furthermore, during the global financial crisis and its aftermath, U.S. purchases of foreign bonds were highly correlated with these risk measures as well as with exchange rates. Changes in this type of capital flow statistically explain as much as half of the quarterly variation in the US dollar during 2007-2012. We use security-level data on U.S. portfolios to demonstrate that this connection of U.S. foreign ...
 
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