Arpit Gupta

Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: New York University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

February 2020Take the Q Train: Value Capture of Public Infrastructure Projects
with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Constantine Kontokosta: w26789
Transit infrastructure is a critical asset for economic activity yet costly to build in dense urban environments. We measure the benefit of the Second Avenue Subway extension in New York City, the most expensive urban transit infrastructure project in recent memory, by analyzing local real estate prices which capitalize the benefits of transit spillovers. We find 8% price increases, creating $6 billion in new property value. Using cell phone ping data, we document substantial reductions in commuting time especially among subway users, offering a plausible mechanism for the price gains. The increase in prices reflects both higher rents and lower risk. Infrastructure improvements lower the riskiness of real estate investments. Only 30% of the private value created by the subway is captured t...
November 2019Valuing Private Equity Strip by Strip
with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh: w26514
We propose a new valuation method for private equity investments. First, we construct a cash-flow replicating portfolio for the private investment, applying Machine Learning techniques on cash-flows on various listed equity and fixed income instruments. The second step values the replicating portfolio using a flexible asset pricing model that accurately prices the systematic risk in bonds of different maturities and a broad cross-section of equity factors. The method delivers a measure of the risk-adjusted profit earned on a PE investment and a time series for the expected return on PE fund categories. We apply the method to buyout, venture capital, real estate, and infrastructure funds, among others. Accounting for horizon-dependent risk and exposure to a broad cross-section of equity fac...
July 2019Skin or Skim? Inside Investment and Hedge Fund Performance
with Kunal Sachdeva: w26113
Hedge fund managers contribute substantial personal capital, or "skin in the game," into their funds. While these allocations may better align incentives, managers may also strategically allocate their private capital in ways that negatively affect investors. We find that funds with more inside investment outperform other funds within the same family. However, this relationship is driven by managerial decisions to invest capital in their least-scalable strategies and restrict the entry of new outsider capital into these funds. Our results suggest that skin in the game may work as a rent-extraction mechanism at the expense of fund participation of outside investors.
May 2011Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide
with Christopher J. Mayer, Edward Morrison, Tomasz Piskorski: w17065
We investigate whether homeowners respond strategically to news of mortgage modification programs. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in modification policy induced by U.S. state government lawsuits against Countrywide Financial Corporation, which agreed to offer modifications to seriously delinquent borrowers with subprime mortgages throughout the country. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we find that Countrywide's relative delinquency rate increased thirteen percent per month immediately after the program's announcement. The borrowers whose estimated default rates increased the most in response to the program were those who appear to have been the least likely to default otherwise, including those with substantial liquidity available through credit cards and relatively l...

Mayer, Christopher, Edward Morrison, Tomasz Piskorski, and Arpit Gupta. 2014. “Mortgage Modification and Strategic Default: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide,” January. (Forthcoming, The American Economic Review) citation courtesy of

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