Elizabeth Stuart

Johns Hopkins University
624 N Broadway, Room 804
Baltimore, MD 21205

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Institutional Affiliation: Johns Hopkins University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

April 2020Variation in Performance of Commonly Used Statistical Methods for Estimating Effectiveness of State-Level Opioid Policies on Opioid-Related Mortality
with Beth Ann Griffin, Megan S. Schuler, Stephen Patrick, Elizabeth McNeer, Rosanna Smart, David Powell, Bradley Stein, Terry Schell, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula: w27029
Over the last two decades, there has been a surge of opioid-related overdose deaths resulting in a myriad of state policy responses. Researchers have evaluated the effectiveness of such policies using a wide-range of statistical models, each of which requires multiple design choices that can influence the accuracy and precision of the estimated policy effects. This simulation study used real-world data to compare model performance across a range of important statistical constructs to better understand which methods are appropriate for measuring the impacts of state-level opioid policies on opioid-related mortality. Our findings show that many commonly-used methods have very low statistical power to detect a significant policy effect (< 10%) when the policy effect size is small yet impactfu...
September 2010Implications of Middle School Behavior Problems for High School Graduation and Employment Outcomes of Young Adults: Estimation of a Recursive Model
with Mustafa C. Karakus, David S. Salkever, Eric P. Slade, Nicholas Ialongo: w16383
The potentially serious adverse impacts of behavior problems during adolescence on employment outcomes in adulthood provide a key economic rationale for early intervention programs. However, the extent to which lower educational attainment accounts for the total impact of adolescent behavior problems on later employment remains unclear As an initial step in exploring this issue, we specify and estimate a recursive bivariate probit model that 1) relates middle school behavior problems to high school graduation and 2) models later employment in young adulthood as a function of these behavior problems and of high school graduation. Our model thus allows for both a direct effect of behavior problems on later employment as well as an indirect effect that operates via graduation from high school...

Published: Karakus MC, Salkever DS, Slade EP, Ialongo N, Stuart EA. Implications of middle school behavior problems for high school graduation and employment outcomes of young adults: Estimation of a recursive model. Education Economics , 2011, doi: 10.1080/09645292.2010.511816. PMCID: PMC3619730 citation courtesy of

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